The Case Study of China

by Elizabeth Economy
Council on Foreign Relations

Notes

* This manuscript had the benefit of several insightful and constructive commentators, including Thomas Homer-Dixon, Jeffrey Boutwell, Lester Ross, Vaclav Smil, James Nickum, and William Overholt. Naturally, any shortcomings in this piece are my own.

  1. The state is defined as the Chinese government including the center, provincial, and local levels.

  2. Scarcity can be a nebulous term. Simply put, scarcity occurs when resource demand exceeds supply. As defined by the World Bank in their 1992 World Development Report (New York: Oxford University Press, 1992, p. 48), water scarcity is a severe constraint when annual renewable water resource supply is less than 1,000 cubic meters (m3) per capita. Water scarcity exists, however, when there is less than 2,000 m3 per capita. Although China's average per capita exceeds 2,000 m3, in many regions, especially in the north and northwest, it is well under 2,000 m3 and in some cases under 1,000 m3.

  3. China News Analysis (December 1, 1994), p. 1.

  4. These measures were adapted from Alan Randall, "Property Entitlements and Pricing Policies for a Maturing Water Economy," The Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics 25:3 (December 1981), pp. 195-220.

  5. Lester Brown, Who Will Feed China? (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1995), pp. 67-68.

  6. "Experts Predict 500 Million Ton Harvest by 2000," Beijing Xinhua (March 7, 1995), in Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS), China Daily Report (March 7, 1995), p. 22.

  7. Brown, Who Will Feed China?, p. 72.

  8. Ibid., p. 70.

  9. "Jiang Chunyun Addresses Rural Work Conference," Beijing Xinhua (February 24, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (March 1, 1995), p. 61.

  10. "Commentary Views Agricultural Problem," Beijing Xinhua (February 25, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (March 6, 1995), p. 83.

  11. Vaclav Smil, Environmental Problems in China: Estimates of Economic Costs, East-West Center Special Reports, No. 5 (April 1996), p. 35.

  12. "Experts Predict 500 Million Ton Harvest by 2000," Beijing Xinhua, p. 22.

  13. Robert Paarlberg, presentation at Council on Foreign Relations China and Environment Seminar (Washington, DC: Spring 1995).

  14. The lower of the two figures was put forth by the State Council, while the higher was claimed by the Ministry of Agriculture (China News Analysis, p. 6).

  15. China Environment News (December 1994), p. 6.

  16. Patrick Tyler, "Huge Water Projects Supply Beijing by 860-mile Aqueduct," New York Times (July 19, 1994), p. A8.

  17. Beijing Xinhua (November 16, 1994), in FBIS, China Daily Report (November 25, 1994), p. 28.

  18. "Commentary Views Agricultural Problem," Beijing Xinhua, p. 81.

  19. Lester Ross comments to author, New York, NY (June 1995).

  20. Tyler, "Huge Water Projects," New York Times (July 19, 1994), p. A8.

  21. "NPC Discusses How to Prevent Unrest in Rural Areas," South China Morning Post (March 9, 1995) in FBIS, China Daily Report (March 9, 1995), p. 18.
  22. China Daily (January 10, 1995).

  23. Lincoln Kaye, "The Reckoning," Far Eastern Economic Review (October 27, 1994), p. 25.

  24. Ibid.

  25. Smil, Environmental Problems in China, p. 55.

  26. Ibid., p. 114.

  27. World Resources 1994-95 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1994), p. 73.

  28. Dr. Thomas Homer-Dixon, interview with Nanjing Academy of Sciences official, Nanjing, PRC (June 27, 1995).

  29. China Environment News (November 15, 1995), p. 6.

  30. Some experts dispute this number, and suggest that China actually had attained the 1.2 billion mark at least two years earlier. According to these specialists, the government refused to acknowledge this fact, and no expert was willing to risk contradicting official estimates.

  31. "PRC State Statistical Bureau CommuniquJ on the 1994 National Economic and Social Development," Beijing Xinhua (February 28, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (March 7, 1995), p. 46.

  32. Robert Cottrell, "For Richer, for Poorer," The Economist (March 18, 1995), p. 9.

  33. "PRC State Statistical Bureau CommuniquJ," Beijing Xinhua, p. 46.

  34. Ibid., p. 19.

  35. The official exchange rate is approximately 8.2 Chinese yuan to every 1 US dollar.

  36. "Statistics Bureau on Farmers Income Up in 1994," Beijing Xinhua (February 23, 1995), and "Gansu Farmer Income," Gansu Ribao (February 12, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (February 24, 1995), pp. 68-69.

  37. Patrick Tyler, "China Migrants: Economic Engine, Social Burden," New York Times (June 29, 1994), p. A3.

  38. Dorothy J. Solinger, "China's Urban Transients in the Transition from Socialist and the Collapse of the Communist `Urban Public Goods Regime,'" in Comparative Politics (January 1995), p. 128.

  39. A second estimate by a Chinese scientist places Beijing's population closer to 11 million .

  40. "Article Urges Household Registration Reform," Banyue Tan (June 10, 1994), in FBIS, China Daily Report (August 5, 1994), p. 11.

  41. Ibid.

  42. Richard Hornite, "A China Gold Rush? Don't Hold Your Breath," New York Times (September 14, 1994), p. A19.

  43. Tyler, "China Migrants," New York Times (June 29, 1994), p. A3.

  44. "Sichuan Governor Criticizes Beijing on Migrant Workers," Hong Kong Eastern Express (March 14, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (March 14, 1995), p. 12.

  45. Tyler, "China Migrants," New York Times (June 29, 1994), p. A3.

  46. Others dispute this interpretation of the criminal role of migrant workers. See for example, "Sichuan Governor," Hong Kong Eastern Express, p. 12; and Solinger, "China's Urban Transients," in Comparative Politics, p. 132.

  47. "Article Urges Household Registration Reform," Banyue Tan, p. 11.

  48. Beijing Review (July 18-24, 1994).

  49. Solinger, "China's Urban Transients," in Comparative Politics, p. 138.

  50. According to the China Statistical Yearbooks, the figures for industrial wastewater officially include "the volume of industrial wastewater discharged, through all outlets, to the outside of industrial enterprises, including direct-cooling water, underground water from mines that does not meet the standard of discharge, and the domestic sewage mixed up with industrial wastewater when discharged, but excluding discharged indirect-cooling water." These figures probably do not accurately account for the discharge from township and village enterprises, some of which have never undergone formal environmental impact assessments or other evaluations of their effect on surrounding resources.

  51. Smil, Environmental Problems in China, p. 54.

  52. China Environment News (September 1994), p. 1.

  53. East Asian Executive Reports (April 1994), p. 14.

  54. China Statistical Yearbook 1994 (Beijing, PRC: China Statistical Publishing House, 1994), p. 695.

  55. China News Analysis (December 1, 1993), p. 5.

  56. China Environment News (June 15, 1995), pp. 4-5.

  57. World Resources 1994-1995, p. 76.

  58. Kari Huus, "Gridlock Anyone?," Far Eastern Economic Review (November 10, 1994), p. 56.

  59. China News Analysis, p. 5.

  60. Ibid.

  61. World Resources 1994-1995, p. 76.

  62. Dr. Thomas Homer-Dixon, interview with Nanjing Academy of Sciences official, Nanjing, PRC (June 27, 1995).

  63. Beijing Review (July 18-24, 1994).

  64. Dr. Thomas Homer-Dixon, interview with Chinese official, Beijing, PRC (June 14, 1995).

  65. Qu Geping and Li Jinchang, Population and the Environment in China (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1994), p. 118.

  66. Ibid.

  67. Robert Cotrell, "Quick, Quick, Slow," The Economist (March 18, 1995), p. 10.

  68. Nayan Chanda, "The End Is Near," Far Eastern Economic Review (February 23, 1995), p. 49.

  69. "Growing Pains," The Economist (March 18, 1989), p. 19.

  70. Nicholas Lardy, China in the World Economy (Washington, DC.: Institute for International Economics, 1994), p. 12.

  71. As was discussed in the section on agriculture, the leadership in Beijing is very concerned about the expansion of rural industry at the expense of agricultural investment and productivity.

  72. China Environment News (October 1994), p. 4.

  73. Ibid.

  74. China Daily (July 18, 1994).

  75. Qu and Li, Population and the Environment in China, p. 120.

  76. Beijing Xinhua (August 28, 1994), in FBIS, China Daily Report (August 29, 1994), p. 51.

  77. "Beijing Municipality Improves Water Control," Beijing Xinhua (April 7, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (April 10, 1995), p. 65.

  78. Author interview with Beijing Municipal Water Conservancy Bureau official, Beijing, PRC (March 3, 1995).

  79. James Nickum, "Beijing's Maturing Socialist Water Economy," in Metropolitan Water Use Conflicts in Asia and the Pacific, eds. James E. Nickum and K. William Easter (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1994), p. 41.

  80. Ibid., p. 43.

  81. Qu and Li, Population and the Environment in China, p. 116.

  82. Brown, Who Will Feed China?, pp. 69-70.

  83. China Environment News (May 1994), p. 4.

  84. Tyler, "Huge Water Projects," New York Times (July 19, 1994), p. A8.

  85. Dr. Thomas Homer-Dixon, interview with Chinese official, Beijing, PRC (June 15, 1995).

  86. Nickum, "Beijing's Maturing Socialist Water Economy," p. 38.

  87. Chinese Environmental Scientist comments to author, notes on file with author (June 20, 1996).

  88. Dr. Thomas Homer-Dixon, interview with Chinese official, Beijing, PRC (June 14, 1995).

  89. The above two citations do not provide equivalent calculations of the total volume of wastewater in Beijing. Further research is necessary to determine which is the more accurate estimate.

  90. Nickum, "Beijing's Maturing Socialist Water Economy," p. 45.

  91. Dr. Thomas Homer-Dixon, interview with Chinese official, Beijing, PRC (June 14, 1995).

  92. "Beijing Municipality Protects Drinking Water," Beijing Xinhua (July 27, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily (July 28, 1995), pp. 51-52.

  93. Gansu Shuili [Gansu Water Resources] (Lanzhou, Gansu: Water Resources Bureau of Gansu Province, 1991), p. 85.

  94. Ibid.

  95. Ibid., p. 99.

  96. Author interview with Gansu Bureau of Water Conservancy official, Lanzhou, Gansu (March 7, 1995).

  97. "Provincial Deputies Warn of Grain Supply `Crisis,'" South China Morning Post (March 13, 1994), in FBIS, China Daily Report (March 13, 1994), p. 67.

  98. "Increasing Pollution Afflicts Huang He," Zhongguo Xinwen She (November 3, 1994), in FBIS, China Daily Report (November 4, 1994), p. 23.

  99. "Lanzhou in Gansu Province Sees Substantial Development," Beijing Xinhua (August 15, 1994), in FBIS, China Daily Report (August 16, 1994), p. 73.

  100. "Increasing Pollution," Zhongguo Xinwen She, p. 23.

  101. China Environment News (February 1995), p. 6.

  102. Gansu Shuili, p. 23.

  103. China Environment News (March 1993), p. 1.

  104. Carter Brandon and Ramash Ramankutty, Toward an Environmental Strategy for Asia, World Bank Discussion Paper 224 (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1993).

  105. "Beijing Municipality Improves Water Control," p. 65.

  106. Ibid.

  107. "Unprofitable Beijing Enterprises To Go Bankrupt," Beijing Xinhua (March 29, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (March 29, 1995), p. 79.

  108. "Beijing People's Congress Work Report," Beijing Ribao (March 7, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (April 6, 1995), pp. 55-56.

  109. Author interview with Beijing Water Conservancy Bureau official, Beijing, PRC (March 3, 1995).

  110. Nickum, Metropolitan Water Use Conflicts, p. 54.

  111. Dr. Thomas Homer-Dixon, interview with official, Beijing PRC (June 15, 1995).

  112. Brandon and Ramankutty, Toward an Environmental Strategy for Asia.

  113. Author interview with Gansu Environmental Protection Bureau official, Lanzhou, Gansu (March 7, 1995).

  114. Ibid.

  115. Ibid.

  116. China Environment News (November 1993), p. 4.

  117. Author interview with Gansu Environmental Protection Bureau official, Lanzhou, Gansu (March 7, 1995).

  118. Jennifer Turner and James Nickum, Trickle Down? Decentralization of Water Resource Administration and Financing in Post-Mao China (Unpublished manuscript, March 1994).

  119. Author interview with Gansu Environmental Protection Bureau Officials, Lanzhou, Gansu (March 7, 1995).

  120. Author interview with Gansu Environmental Protection Bureau officials, Lanzhou, Gansu (March 7, 1995).

  121. Qu Geping, Environmental Management in China (Beijing, PRC: China Environmental Science Press, 1991).

  122. "Gansu's Secretary Addresses Discipline Meeting," Lanzhou Gansu People's Radio Network (February 27, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (March 14, 1995), p. 62.

  123. New York Times (July 19, 1994), p. A8.

  124. China Environment News (March 1993), p. 6.

  125. Tyler, "Huge Water Projects," New York Times (July 19, 1994), p. A8.

  126. Ibid.

  127. Ibid.

  128. Ibid.

  129. Carter and Ramankutty, Toward an Environmental Strategy for Asia.

  130. Ibid.

  131. Author interview with Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' official, Beijing, PRC (March 8, 1995).

  132. Dr. Thomas Homer-Dixon, interview with official, PRC (June 1995).

  133. Author interview with Gansu Water Resources Bureau official, Lanzhou, Gansu (March 7, 1995).

  134. "Provincial Deputies Warn of Grain Supply Crisis," Hong Kong South China Morning Post, p. 67.

  135. "Article Views `Conflicts Between Beijing, Provinces,'" Hong Kong South China Morning Post (July 30, 1994), in FBIS, China Daily Report (August 1, 1994), pp. 21-22.

  136. Turner and Nickum, Trickle Down?, p. 9.

  137. FBIS, China Daily Report (April 8, 1995).

  138. Carter and Ramankutty, Toward an Environmental Strategy for Asia.

  139. China Environment News (September 1993).

  140. Author interview with Beijing Water Conservancy Bureau official, Beijing, PRC (March 3, 1995).

  141. FBIS, China Daily Report (April 8, 1995).

  142. China Daily (January 8, 1996), p. 1.

  143. "World Bank Loans Promote Gansu Development," Beijing Xinhua (November 2, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (November 3, 1995), p. 44.

  144. Brown, Who Will Feed China?, p. 28.

  145. "Jiang Zemin, Li Peng Discuss Agriculture," Beijing Xinhua (February 27, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (March 6, 1995), p. 78.

  146. Joseph Kahn, "Feeding the Masses: China's Industrial Surge Squeezes Grain Farms, Spurs Needs for Imports," Wall Street Journal (March 10, 1995), p. A6.

  147. Brown, Who Will Feed China?, p. 100.

  148. Kahn, "Feeding the Masses," Wall Street Journal, p. A6.

  149. "Jiang Zemin Views Rural Issues with Deputies," Beijing Xinhua (March 7, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (March 9, 1995), p. 11.

  150. Ibid.

  151. "Jiang Zemin, Li Peng Discuss Agriculture," Beijing Xinhua, p. 80.

  152. "Fujian Takes Measures To Protect Farmland," Fujian People's Radio Network (February 17, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (March 1, 1995), p. 66.

  153. Hong Kong Standard (March 22, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (March 22, 1995), p. 60.

  154. "Beijing Strives for Grain Self-Sufficiency for 2000," Beijing Xinhua (March 4, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (March 6, 1995), p. 85.

  155. Ibid.

  156. Vaclav Smil, China's Environmental Crisis (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 1993), p. 145.

  157. "Commentary Views Agricultural Problem," Beijing Xinhua, p. 81.

  158. Philip Shenon, "Gin Cun Journal: Good Earth Squandered. Who Will Feed China?," New York Times (September 21, 1994), p. A4.

  159. "Zou Jiahua Calls for Tighter Land Use Control," Beijing Xinhua (August 31, 1994), in FBIS, China Daily (September 1, 1994), p. 37.

  160. "Commentary on Role of Property Rights Markets," Zhongguo Zhengquan Bao (October 14, 1994), in FBIS, China Daily Report (November 15, 1994), pp. 53-54.

  161. "Commentary Views Agricultural Problem," Beijing Xinhua, p. 83.

  162. Renmin Ribao (February 26, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (February 26, 1995), p. 2.

  163. "Renmin Ribao on Conference" Renmin Ribao (February 28, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (March 1, 1995), p. 64.

  164. Kahn, "Feeding the Masses," Wall Street Journal, p. A6.

  165. Ibid.

  166. "NPC Discusses How to Prevent Unrest," South China Morning Post, p. 18.

  167. "State Planning Ministers Report," Beijing Xinhua (March 6, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (March 6, 1995), p. 39.

  168. "Commentary Views Agricultural Problem," Beijing Xinhua, p. 83.

  169. Renmin Ribao (July 28, 1994).

  170. "Provincial Agriculture Officials on Investment," Renmin Ribao (February 26, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (March 7, 1995), p. 60.

  171. Kenneth Lieberthal, Governing China (New York: W.W. Norton, 1995), p. 268.

  172. "Procurator Views Corruption," Beijing Xinhua (March 13, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (March 14, 1995), p. 11.

  173. Ibid.

  174. Nicholas D. Kristoff and Sheryl WuDunn, China Wakes (New York: Random House, 1994), p. 122.

  175. Ibid., p. 110.

  176. Qu, Environmental Management in China, p. 318.

  177. "Official Names Five Hidden Problems in Agriculture," Hong Kong Ming Pao (July 3, 1994) in FBIS, China Daily Report (August 1, 1994), p. 38.

  178. "Commentator Urges Attention to Peasants' Burden," Beijing Jingji Cankao Bao (October 21, 1994) in FBIS, China Daily Report (November 14, 1994), p. 70.

  179. "Article Views Sichuan Grain Problems, Remedies," Sichuan Tongji Xinxi (November 20, 1994) in FBIS, China Daily Report (March 28, 1995), pp. 34-36.

  180. "NPC Discusses How to Prevent Unrest in Rural Areas," South China Morning Post, p. 18.

  181. "Sichuan Governor Criticizes Beijing," Hong Kong Eastern Express, p. 12.

  182. "Hubei Issues Regulations on Managing Peasant Burden," Wuhan Hubei Ribao (February 3, 1995) in FBIS, China Daily Report (March 7, 1995), p. 62.

  183. Lincoln Kaye, "System Failure," Far Eastern Economic Review (October 27, 1994), p. 30.

  184. "Four Village Leaders Executed in Henan," Xinhua (March 28, 1995) in FBIS, China Daily Report (March 29, 1995), p. 77.

  185. Lincoln Kaye, "Dull but Sharp," Far Eastern Economic Review (March 23, 1995), p. 20.

  186. Still, when the Daya Bay nuclear plant shut down thirteen times during its first year of operation, no villagers in the vicinity were notified; they only discovered the fact of the shutdowns due to television broadcasts from Hong Kong. "Guangdong's Daya Bay Villagers Not Notified," Hong Kong South China Morning Post (April 9, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (April 10, 1995), p. 63.

  187. "Newspaper Introduces Column on Water Resources," Renmin Ribao (July 28, 1994), in FBIS, China Daily Report (August 15, 1994), p. 16.

  188. Author interview with NEPA officials, Beijing, PRC (September 28, 1994).

  189. Author interview with Ministry of Forestry official, Beijing, PRC (September 26, 1994).

  190. China Daily (July 18, 1994).

  191. Author interview with Liang Congjie, New York, NY (December 2, 1994).

  192. Hong Kong South China Morning Post (March 1, 1995), p. 8.

  193. Dai Qing, presentation to National Committee on US-China Relations, New York, NY (March 22, 1995).

  194. Author interview with State Planning Commission official, Beijing, PRC (June 1992).

  195. China Daily (January 9, 1995), p. 2.

  196. Michael Oksenberg and Elizabeth Economy, International Law and Global Environmental Change: The China Case (Prepared for publication in Jacobson and Weiss, MIT Press, 1996).

  197. China Environment News (July 1994), p. 1.

  198. China Environment News (September 1994), p. 2.

  199. Abigail Jahiel, Policy Implementation Under "Socialist Reform": The Case of Water Pollution Management in the People's Republic of China. Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Michigan, 1994.

  200. China Statistical Yearbook, 1988-1994 (Beijing, PRC: China Statistical Publishing House).

  201. China Environment News (February 1995), p. 1.

  202. World Resources 1994-95, p. 77.

  203. Qu, Environmental Management in China, pp. 318-319.

  204. Jahiel, Policy Implementation Under "Socialist Reform," p. 199.

  205. These funds arise from fees collected as fines from polluting industries.

  206. Qu, Environmental Management in China, p. 319.

  207. Jahiel, Policy Implementation Under "Socialist Reform," pp. 217-218.

  208. The failure of an enterprise to submit papers concerning the impact of its operation on the environment is a problem endemic to China. These enterprises may continue to operate for a long time until the damage they incur begins to affect local crops, fisheries, or air quality.

  209. China Environment News (February 1995), p. 2.

  210. "Guizhou People's Higher Court Work Project," Guizhou Ribao (March 3, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (April 7, 1995), p. 69.

  211. China Environment News (May 15, 1995), p. 1.

  212. Guangming Ribao (February 20, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (March 21, 1995), pp. 57-58.

  213. "Growing Pains," The Economist, pp. 19-21.

  214. China Environment News (November 1994), p. 1.

  215. Guangming Ribao, pp. 57-58.

  216. Ibid., p. 249.

  217. Ibid., p. 297.

  218. Turner and Nickum, Trickle Down?.

  219. China Environment News (September 1994), p. 1.

  220. Turner and Nickum, Trickle Down?, p. 7.

  221. Ibid., p. 10.

  222. Ibid., p. 12.

  223. "Unified Water-Tapping Permits Implemented 1 July," Beijing Xinhua (June 30, 1994), in FBIS, China Daily Report (July 12, 1994), p. 18.

  224. Turner and Nickum, Trickle Down?, p. 14.

  225. China Environment News (June 1994), p. 3.

  226. "Nation to Increase Funds for Environmental Protection," Beijing Xinhua (January 6, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (January 9, 1995), p. 56.

  227. China Environment News (July 1994), p. 1.

  228. China Environment News (January 1995), p. 1.

  229. Beijing Xinhua (January 6, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (January 9, 1995), p. 56.

  230. Daniel Esty, Daniel Rosen, and Theresa Feng, China Rises: The Environmental Implications of China's Economic Growth (Unpublished manuscript, presented at Council on Foreign Relations, New York, NY, January 27, 1995).

  231. China Environment News (July 1994), p. 1.

  232. Dr. Thomas Homer-Dixon, interview with Chinese official, Beijing, PRC (June 13, 1995).

  233. "Efforts to Control Large Rivers, Lakes Reported," Beijing Xinhua (July 21, 1994), in FBIS, China Daily Report (July 21, 1994), p. 21.

  234. Dr. Thomas Homer-Dixon, interview with Chinese official, Beijing, PRC (June 14, 1995).

  235. Hong Kong Eastern Express (March 11, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (March 13, 1995), p. 34.

  236. China Environment News (July 1993), p. 4.

  237. A leading group consists of representatives from various ministries and agencies that have responsibility or interest in a given issue area.

  238. China Environment News (July 1993), p. 4.

  239. Ibid.

  240. Ibid., p. 1.

  241. Author interview with Beijing Normal University officials, Beijing, PRC (March 8, 1995).

  242. "Song Jian Discusses Cleaning Up Huai Pollution," in FBIS, China Daily Report (September 1, 1994), p. 28.

  243. Patrick Tyler, "A Tide of Pollution Threatens China's Prosperity," New York Times (September 25, 1994), p. A3.

  244. Ibid.

  245. Ibid.

  246. Huai River Valley Geographic Assessment Scientists, interview with author, Beijing, PRC (March 9, 1995).

  247. Notes provided by Chinese scientist to author, on file with author (June 20, 1996).

  248. Notes provided by Chinese scientist to author, on file with author (April 26, 1996).

  249. China Environment News (May 15, 1995), p. 1.

  250. Joseph Kahn, "China's `Greens Win Rare Battle on River,'" Wall Street Journal (August 2, 1996), p. A8.

  251. China Environment News (May 15, 1995), p. 1.

  252. Notes provided by Chinese scientist to author, on file with author (April 26, 1996).

  253. China Environment News (July 1994), p. 2.

  254. East Asian Executive Reports (April 1994), p. 15.

  255. Beijing Xinhua (July 21, 1994), in FBIS, China Daily Report (July 21, 1994), p. 21.

  256. "Health Minister Reports on Rural Sanitation," Beijing Xinhua (March 27, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (March 28, 1995), p. 12.

  257. China Daily (January 8, 1996), p. 1.

  258. Brandon and Ramankutty, Toward an Environmental Strategy for Asia, p. 156.

  259. China Daily (January 8, 1996), p. 1.

  260. "Sichuan Governor Criticizes Beijing," Hong Kong Eastern Express, p. 12.

  261. "The Three Gorges Dam in China," Human Rights Watch/Asia 7, No. 2 (February 1995).

  262. "Three Gorges Provides Investors Opportunity," Beijing Xinhua (March 13, 1995), in FBIS, China Daily Report (March 14, 1995), pp. 38-39.

  263. Presentation by Dai Qing at National Committee on US-China Relations, New York, NY (March 22, 1995).

  264. Ibid.


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Summary
Sections I, II, III and IV
Sections V, VI and VII

State Capacity
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