* For their valuable help the authors thank Chris Albertyn, Marc Van Ameringen, Peter Ewang, Saliem Fakir, George Grant, Craig Johnson, Tim Hart, Doug Hindson, Antoinette Louw, Jennifer Mander, Karen MacGregor, Anthony Minnaar, Mike Morris, Jim Mullin, Johan Olivier, Garth Stead, and Daniel Weiner.

1. Especially in the townships, many people earn their livelihood by buying and selling outside the formal economy of South Africa.

2. In this paper, "informal settlement" denotes a legal or an illegal settlement with little infrastructure. Housing is constructed from unconventional building materials. Normally, illegal settlements are described as squatter communities, yet this distinction will not be made here. Derik Gelderblom and Pieter Kok, Urbanization: South Africa's Challenge (Pretoria: Human Sciences Research Council, 1994), 255.

3. Quoted in Rich Mkhondo, Reporting South Africa (London: Heinemann, 1993), 19.

4. Sebastian Mallaby, After Apartheid: The Future of South Africa (New York: Times Books, 1992), 43.

5. African National Congress, The Reconstruction and Development Programme: A Policy Framework (Johannesburg: Umanyano Publications, 1994), 1.

6. Bill Keller, "Mandela's Rising Star in Corporate Circles," New York Times, 22 April 1995, 17, 31.

7. Thomas Homer-Dixon, "Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Cases," International Security 19, no. 1 (summer 1994): 10-11.

8. Thomas Homer-Dixon, "On the Threshold: Environmental Changes as Causes of Acute Conflict," International Security 16, no. 2 (fall 1991): 91. Various types of conflict can result from these social effects. Ethnic conflict (or group identity conflict) arises with population displacement. Civil strife, riots, insurgency, revolution, and coups d'etat often occur with declining economic productivity and the inability of the state to meet the needs of its population. Interstate conflict can arise from disputes over the access to and distribution of resources shared between states, for example, water.

9. Ted Gurr, Minorities at Risk: A Global View of Ethnopolitical Conflicts (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace, 1993), 126.

10. Joel Migdal, "The State in Society," in State Power and Social Forces, eds. Joel Migdal, Atul Kohli and Vivienne Shue (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994), 27.

11. Both Robert Putnam and Naomi Chazan emphasize the importance of interactions between civil society and the state for effective state policy. See Robert Putnam, Making Democracy Work: Civil Traditions in Modern Italy (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1993); Naomi Chazan, "Engaging the State: Associational Life in Sub-Saharan Africa," in State Power and Social Forces, eds. Joel Migdal, Atul Kohli, and Vivienne Shue (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994), 255-292.

12. Gurr, Minorities at Risk, 130.

13. Rent seekers are persons or groups who seek to extract payments from the economy for factors of production that are in excess of what would normally be obtained in a competitive market.

14. Chazan, "Engaging the State," 269. Chazan argues that under conditions of economic strain, both state and society become more insular.

15. Putnam, Making Democracy Work, 167.

16. Under the new constitution, the formerly white-dominated province of Natal has been integrated with the neighboring Zulu-dominated homeland of KwaZulu to form the province of KwaZulu-Natal.

17. Henk Coetzee and David Cooper, "Wasting Water," in Going Green: People, Politics, and the Environment in South Africa, eds. Jacklyn Cock and Eddie Koch (Cape Town: Oxford University Press, 1991), 130.

18. Craig MacKenzie, Degradation of Arable Land Resources: Policy Options and Considerations within the Context of Rural Restructuring in South Africa, Agriculture Policy Centre Working Paper 8 (Johannesburg: Land and Agricultural Policy Center, December 1994), 2.

19. Bruce Liggitt, An Investigation into Soil Erosion in the Mflozi Catchment: Final Report to the KwaZulu Bureau of Natural Resources, Institute of Natural Resources, University of Natal, Investigational Report I/R 28 (Pieter-Maritzburg: Institute of Natural Resources, University of Natal, February 1988), 2.

20. MacKenzie, Degradation of Arable Land, 1.

21. According to its Gini coefficient, South Africa was the most inequitable nation in the world. In 1976, the Gini coefficient based on household income was estimated at 0.68, and in 1991 it was 0.67. The coefficient for the United States is 0.34, and that for Canada, 0.29. Mike McGrath and Andrew Whiteford, "Disparate Circumstances," Indicator SA 11, no. 3 (winter 1994): 49.

22. David Cooper, "From Soil Erosion to Sustainability," in Going Green: People, Politics, and the Environment in South Africa, eds. Jacklyn Cock and Eddie Koch (Cape Town: Oxford University Press, 1991), 176.

23. Alan Durning, Apartheid's Environmental Toll, World Watch Paper 95 (Washington, D.C.: World Watch Institute, 1990), 14.

24. Cooper, "From Soil Erosion to Sustainability," p. 179.

25.Lesley Lawson, "The Ghetto and the Greenbelt," in Going Green: People, Politics, and the Environment in South Africa, eds. Jacklyn Cock and Eddie Koch (Cape Town: Oxford University Press, 1991), 61.

26. David Barnard, "Housing: The Reconstruction Challenge," Prodder Newsletter: Program for Development Research 6, no. 4 (November 1994): 1.

27. Mkhondo, Reporting South Africa, ix. Mkhondo gets these figures from the South African Development Bank.

28. Francis Wilson, "A Land out of Balance," in Restoring the Land, ed. Mamphela Ramphele (London: Panos Institute, 1991), 32.

29. Charles Simkins, "Population Pressures," in Restoring the Land, ed. Mamphela Ramphele (London: Panos Institute, 1991), 22.

30. Durning, Apartheid's Environmental Toll, 13.

31. Priya Deshingkar, Integrating Gender Concerns into Natural Resource Management Policies in South Africa (Johannesburg: Land and Agriculture Policy Centre, April 1994), 1.

32. Partha Dasgupta, "Population, Poverty and the Local Environment," Scientific American (February 1995): 40-42.

33. Simkins, "Population Pressures," 23. The white infant mortality rate for the period 1985-1990 is 9.0 per thousand (see "Republic of South Africa," South Africa Statistics 1992 [Pretoria: Central Statistical Service, 1992], 3.8).

34. Land use management practices, not just natural vulnerabilities, must be analyzed when soil erosion is discussed: "Factors such as climate, soil erodibility and topography determine the potential erosion hazard in an area. Nevertheless, the difference in erosion caused by differing management of the same soil is very much greater than the difference in erosion from different soils under the same form of management. Thus cropping and management practices provide the key to controlling soil loss." Liggitt, "An Investigation into Soil Erosion," 27.

35. Wilson, "A Land out of Balance," 34.

36. Durning, Apartheid's Environmental Toll, 12-13.

37. John Collings, "The Vanishing Land," Leadership, 24.

38. Dan Archer, Twenty-Twenty, A Working Report, Institute of Natural Resources, University of Natal, Working Paper 111 (August 1994), 5.

39. Ibid.

40. Mark Gandar, "The Imbalance of Power," in Going Green: People, Politics, and the Environment in South Africa, eds. Jacklyn Cock and Eddie Koch (Cape Town: Oxford University Press, 1991), 98.

41. David Cooper and Saliem Fakir, Commercial Farming and Wood Resources in South Africa: Potential Sources for Poor Communities, Land and Agriculture Policy Centre Working Paper 11 (September 1994), 1.

42. Francis Wilson and Mamphela Ramphele, Uprooting Poverty: The South African Challenge (New York: W.W. Norton and Co., 1989), 44.

43. Gandar, "Imbalance of Power," 98-99.

44. Morag Peden, Tree Utilization in KwaZulu and the Future Provision of Tree Products, Institute of Natural Resources, University of Natal Working Paper 88 (March 1993), 7.

45. David Brooks, Field Study Report: South Africa, Mozambique and East Africa (Ottawa: International Development Research Centre, Environment and Natural Resources Division, 31 May 1995), 17.

46. David Dewar, "Cities under Stress," in Restoring the Land, ed. Mamphela Ramphele (London: Panos Institute, 1991), 92.

47. Dean Simpson, "The Drowning Pool," in Rotating the Cube: Environmental Strategies for the 1990s (University of Natal, Indicator South Africa, 1993), 28.

48. Barnard, "Housing," 1.

49. Bill Keller, "Squatters Testing Limits as Apartheid Crumbles," New York Times, 14 November 1993, A3.

50. Barnard, "Housing," 1.

51. H. R. Beckedahl and D. G. Slade, "Minimise Soil Loss in Urban Areas," Muniviro 9, no. 3: 12.

52. Lawson, "The Ghetto and the Green Belt," 54.

53. Homer-Dixon, "On the Threshold," 91.

54. Durning, Apartheid's Environmental Toll, 13.

55. Cooper, "From Soil Erosion to Sustainability," 179. Kwashiorkor results from a lack of protein in the diet and causes skin problems and muscle wasting. Pellagra is a riboflavin deficiency that results in joint deformities and gastrointestinal ailments and affects the nervous system.

56. N. Boesema, "Making the Right Move: Migration Decision Making in a Rural Community," in Making a Move: Perspectives on Black Migration Decision Making and Its Context, eds. H. P. Steyn and M. Boesema (Pretoria: Human Sciences Research Council, 1988), 113-114.

57. Barnard, "Housing," 2.

58. H. P. Steyn and N. Boesema, "Introduction" in Making a Move: Perspectives on Black Migration Decision Making and Its Context (Pretoria: Human Sciences Research Council, 1988), 3.

59. Dewar, "Cities under Stress," 91-92.

60. South African Institute of Race Relations, Race Relations Survey, 1993-94 (Johannesburg, 1994), 493.

61. In addition, South Africa has an estimated seven to eight million homeless people drifting from countryside to cities and also among cities. Barnard, "Housing," 1.

62. Simkins, "Population Pressures," 23-24. See also H. P. Steyn and N. Boesema, "Conclusion," Making a Move. In this publication, written before the repeal of the pass laws, Steyn and Boesema state: "The rural-urban migration of blacks in South Africa centers around the inability of the rural areas to provide for the material needs of the local people. Structural determinants such as land shortage and the inaccessibility of available land, overpopulation, and the general underdevelopment of rural areas on the one hand, and the attractions of cities and city life such as job opportunities, general infrastructure and facilities on the other hand are relevant in this regard" (134).

63. This estimate was produced by the Urban Foundation. Lawson, "The Ghetto and the Green Belt," 47.

64. Catherine Cross, Simon Bekker, and Craig Clark, "People on the Move: Migration Streams in the DFR," Indicator SA 9, no. 3 (winter 1992): 42.

65. Inga Moltzin, "Do-It-Yourself Urban Living," New Ground, no. 3 (March 1991): 15-16.

66. Cross et al., "People on the Move," 43.

67. Doug Hindson and Mike Morris, "Violence in Natal/KwaZulu: Dynamics, Causes, Trends" (unpublished paper, March 1994), 1.

68. Catherine Cross, Simon Bekker, and Craig Clark, "Migration into DFR Informal Settlements: An Overview of Trends," in Here To Stay: Informal Settlements in KwaZulu-Natal, eds. Doug Hindson and Jeff McCarthy (Dalbridge: Indicator Press, 1994), 88-89.

69. Doug Hindson and Jeff McCarthy, "Defining and Gauging the Problem," in Here to Stay: Informal Settlements in KwaZulu-Natal, eds. Doug Hindson and Jeff McCarthy (Dalbridge: University of Natal, Indicator Press, 1994), 2.

70. Nick Wilkins and Julian Hofmeyer, "Socio-Economic Aspects of Informal Settlements," in Here to Stay: Informal Settlements in KwaZulu-Natal, eds. Doug Hindson and Jeff McCarthy (Dalbridge, South Africa: University of Natal, Indicator Press, 1994), 109. Oscillating migration is the movement of people, predominantly for employment purposes, back and forth between urban and rural areas.

71. John Darnton, "Note of Unity Pervades Peace Prize Ceremony," New York Times, 11 December 1993, 7.

72. Moltzin, "Do-It-Yourself Urban Living," 14.

73. Antoinette Louw, "Conflicting Views," Indicator SA 11, no. 1 (summer 1992): 17-18.

74. Philip Harrison, "The Policies and Politics of Informal Settlement in South Africa: A Historical Perspective," Africa Insight 22, no. 1 (1992), 14.

75. Anthony Minnaar, "Undisputed Kings: Warlordism in Natal," in Patterns of Violence: Case Studies of Conflict in Natal, ed. Anthony Minnaar (Pretoria: Human Sciences Research Council, 1992), 63.

76. Hindson and Morris, Violence in Natal/KwaZulu, 6-7.

77. Ibid., 8.

78. Doug Hindson, Mark Byerley, and Mike Morris, "From Violence to Reconstruction: The Making, Disintegration and Remaking of an Apartheid City," Antipode 26, no. 4 (1994): 341.

79. Anthony Minnaar, An Overview of Political Violence and Conflict Trends in South Africa with Specific Reference to the Period January-June 1994 (Pretoria: Centre for Socio-Political Analysis, Human Sciences Research Council, July 1994), 1.

80. South African Institute of Race Relations, Race Relations Survey, 1994-95, 296.

81. Minnaar, An Overview of Political Violence and Conflict Trends, 17.

82. The percentage increases are based on the following numbers:

Central Rand-203 incidents to 473

East Rand-145 incidents to 266

South of Johannesburg-53 incidents to 160

From Matha Ki and Anthony Minnaar, "Figuring Out the Problem: Overview of PWV Conflict from 1990-1993," Indicator Essay 11, no. 2 (autumn 1994): 26.

83. Antoinette Louw, "Post-Election Conflict in KwaZulu-Natal," Indicator SA 11, no. 4 (Conflict Supplement, spring 1994): 16.

84. Valerie Moller, "Post-Election Euphoria," Indicator SA 12, no. 1 (summer 1994): 27.

85. Ibid., 28.

86. John Battersby, "Blacks Prepare to Cast Their Ballots," Christian Science Monitor (28 February 1994): 11.

87. Susan Olzak and Johan Olivier, "The Dynamics of Ethnic Collective Action in South Africa and the United States: A Comparative Study" (unpublished paper, June 1994), 2-7.

88. Mary de Haas and Paulus Zulu, "Ethnic Mobilisation: KwaZulu's Politics of Secession," Indicator SA 10, no. 3 (winter 1993): 49.

89. Mkhondo, Reporting South Africa, 48.

90. Mike Morris and Doug Hindson, "The Disintegration of Apartheid: From Violence to Reconstruction" in South African Review, eds. Glen Moss and Ingrid Obery (Braamfontein, South Africa: Raven Press, 1992), 158.

91. Mike Morris and Doug Hindson, "Power Relations in Informal Settlements," in Here to Stay, 160.

92. Hindson et al., "From Violence to Reconstruction," 340.

93. Louw, "Conflicting Views," 21.

94. Antoinette Louw, "Political Conflict 1989-92," Indicator Essay 9, no. 3 (winter 1992): 57.

95. Louw, "Conflicting Views," 21.

96. Antoinette Louw, "Wars of Weapons, Wars of Words," Indicator SA 11, no. 1 (autumn 1994): 65-70.

97. Antoinette Louw, "Conflict of Interest," Indicator SA 11, no. 2 (autumn 1994): 17.

98. Moller, "Post-Election Euphoria," 28.

99. Indicator SA 12, no. 1 (summer 1994): 73.

100. "A Zulu Irritant," The Economist (27 May 1995), 39.

101. Mark Shaw, an analyst with the Centre for Policy Studies, wrote: "The number of murders increased dramatically from 1980 to 1990 after which levels surged. Some of these statistics reflect political violence, but the line between political and criminal violence is fine. This implies that the murder rate should decline from 1994 when political violence decreased." Mark Shaw, "Exploring a Decade of Crime," Crime and Conflict, no. 1 (autumn 1995): 13.

102. See Glanz, "Patterns of Crime," Crime and Conflict, 9-10. Glanz compares crime levels from 1988 to 1993 and to the first ten months of 1994. The following tables are adapted from this article and are based on crime statistics compiled by the commissioner of the South African Police. Rates are calculated per hundred thousand of the population of South Africa, including the former self-governing territories. The "big six" crimes are rape, murder, aggravated assault, aggravated robbery, burglary (business and residential), and theft of motor vehicles.

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