*We thank the Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan, and the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), Islamabad, Pakistan, for their support during the preparation of this study. Mohammad Tahir of SDPI provided particularly valuable comments and research assistance. We also thank David Runnalls, Tariq Banuri, Methab Karim, Francois Bregha, Roger Schwaas, Arthur Rubinoff, Iqbal Noor, John Dirks, Stephan Fuller, and Aban Marker Kabraji for additional suggestions and comments on earlier drafts.

1. Thomas Homer-Dixon, "Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Cases," International Security 19, no. 1 (summer 1994): 5-40; Jack Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (Berkeley, Calif.: University of California Press, 1991).

2. See, for instance, Norman Myers, "Environmental Security: The Case of South Asia," International Environmental Affairs, 1, no. 2 (spring, 1989): 138-154.

3. For further elaboration, see Homer-Dixon, "Environmental Scarcities," 8-9.

4. See, for example, ibid.

5. Manzooruddin Ahmed, "Introduction," in Contemporary Pakistan: Politics, Economy, and Society (North Carolina: Carolina Academic Press, 1980), 3.

6. Ibid.

7. Arthur S. Banks (ed.), Political Handbook of the World: 1994-95 (New York: CSA Publications, 1994), 661.

8. Ibid., 664.

9. Ayesha Jalal, Democracy and Authoritarianism in South Asia: A Comparative and Historical Perspective (Lahore: Sang-E-Meel Publications, 1995), 23.

10. Ibid., 49.

11. Ibid., 49-50.

12. Ibid., 141.

13. Ibid., 37-38.

14. Ibid., 54.

15. Rasaul Bakhsh Rais, "Pakistan: Hope Amidst Turmoil," Journal of Democracy 5 no. 2 (April 1994): 134.

16. See "Pakistan: Experiments with Democracy," for instance, ibid., 132-143. Similar optimism is expressed in Leo E. Rose, in Democracy in Developing Countries, eds. Larry Diamond, Juan Linz, and Seymour Martin Lipset (London: Adamantine Press, 1989), 2: 105-141, and Robert LaPorte Jr., "Another Try at Democracy," in Contemporary Problems in Pakistan, ed. J. Henry Korson (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1993), 171-192.

17. Indeed, both ran afoul of President Ghulam Ishaq Khan, who, along with the army chief of staff, formed the "linchpin" of Pakistan's military-bureaucratic state structure. See Jalal, Democracy and Authoritarianism, 110-114.

18. In this regard, Ayesha Jalal notes that political processes remain hostage to a highly inequitable state structure. Continuing imbalances within the state and between the state and civil society "foreclose the possibility of a significant reapportioning of political power and economic resources in the very near future." See Jalal, Democracy and Authoritarianism, 121. Similar pessimism is expressed in S. John Tsagronis, Pakistan: Prospects for Democracy (Washington D.C.: Hudson Institute, December 1992).

19. Jalal, Democracy and Authoritarianism, 49.

20. William Richter, "Pakistan," in World Encyclopedia of Political Systems, ed. George E. Debury (New York: Facts on File Ltd., 1987), 2: 839.

21. The major political parties are the Pakistan Muslim League (PML); the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), currently headed by Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto; and the Jamaat-e-Islami-Pakistan (JIP). Inter-party rivalries and splits have often led to the formation of broader coalitions. Examples include the Movement for the Restoration of Democracy (a loose coalition of forces opposing the PPP and the regime of General Mohammed Zia ul-Haq during the 1980s) and the more recently formed Islamic Democratic Alliance, led by PML majority-faction leader and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

22. Parvez Hassan, "The Growth of Environmental Consciousness in Pakistan," in Beyond Shifting Sands: The Environment in India and Pakistan, ed. The World Conservation Union (New Delhi: Centre for Science and the Environment and IUCN, May 1994), 7.

23. Shahid Javed Burki, "Pakistan's Economic Performance," in Contemporary Problems of Pakistan, ed. J. Henry Korson (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1993), 9.

24. See World Bank, Trends in Developing Economies (Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 1994), 384.

25. Jalal, Democracy and Authoritarianism, 142-145.

26. Ibid., 192.

27. See for instance, ibid., 156.

28. These reforms included the abolition of the "one-unit" through which Punjab, Sindi, the NWFP, and Baluchistan had been merged into West Pakistan, the establishment of a one-person - one-vote system, and recognition of East Pakistan's larger population through allotment of more seats to that province in the National Assembly. See LaPorte, "Another Try at Democracy," 176.

29. The Kalabaugh Dam is a case in point. Conceived in 1953, it was supposed be constructed on the border between Punjab and the NWFP. However, the project quickly bogged down in endless interprovincial haggling. Punjabi support for the dam was opposed by the NWFP on grounds that it would flood villages around Nowshera and Attock. Sind and Baluchistan warned that the dam would lower water levels and cause drought further down the Indus. The dispute continues to this day. While countless rupees have been wasted on surveys of even less suitable sites, the country's power deficit worsens. See Christina Lamb, Waiting for Allah: Pakistan's Struggle for Democracy (New Delhi: Penguin Books, 1991), 182.

30. Ibid., 148-149.

31. For a good general discussion, see Feroz Ahmed, "Pakistan's Problems of National Integration: The Case of Sind," in Regional Imbalances and the National Question in Pakistan, ed. S. Akbar Zaidi (Lahore: Vanguard Books, 1992), 163-165. 32. Aziz Siddiqui, "Sparring with the Enemy," Newsline, July 1995, p. 29.

33. Pakistan has failed to conduct a census since 1981, in part because of the implications new census numbers could have for the relative power of ethnic groups in various political, economic, and social institutions.

34. Siddiqui, "Sparring with the Enemy," 30.

35. As reported in Robert E. Looney and David Winterford, Economic Causes and Consequences of Defense Expenditures in the Middle East and South Asia (Boulder. Colo.: Westview Press, 1994), 193.

36. Omar Noman, "The Impact of Migration on Pakistan's Economy and Society," in Economy and Culture in Pakistan: Migrants and Cities in Muslim Society, eds. Hastings Doonan and Prina Werbner (London: Macmillan, 1991), 79. See also Jonathan S. Addleton, Undermining the Centre: The Gulf Migration and Pakistan (Karachi: Oxford University Press, 1992), 113-135.

37. Shabruki Rufi Khan and Safiya Aftab, Structural Adjustment and the Poor in Pakistan, Sustainable Development Policy Institute Research Report 8 (Islamabad: Sustainable Development Policy Institute, January 1995), 4.

38. See Ahmed Rashid, "Begging to Differ," The Herald: Karachi, July 1995, p. 80.

39. As reported in Akmal Hussain, Strategic Issues in Pakistan's Economic Policy (Lahore: Progressive Publishers, 1988), 8.

40. See Aftab Ahmad Khan, "Unemployment Rising Unabatedly Needs Effective Emergent Measures for Containment," The News: Karachi, 1 April 1995, p. 9.

41. Homer-Dixon, "Environmental Scarcities," 9.

42. Ibid., 10.

43. Ibid., 10-11.

44. Khawar Mumtaz and Mehjabeen Abidi-Habib, Pakistan's Environment: A Historical Perspective and Selected Bibliography with Annotations (Karachi: Joint Research Council-International Union for the Conservation of Nature Pakistan, 1989), 9-10.

45. Ibid., 10.

46. Part of the problem lies in the huge capital requirements of such megaprojects - a feature that automatically calls for high-level, centralized decision making in government as well as considerable foreign backing and input. These characteristics tend not only to shrink opportunities for local community involvement, but also to encourage corruption by increasing the number of governmental and financial agencies likely to demand kickbacks for the project's completion. See Sungi Development Foundation, Ghazi-Barotha Hydro Power Project: A Report on the Key Issues (Islamabad: Sungi Development Foundation, 1995), 6-7.

47. Government of Pakistan, The Pakistan National Conservation Strategy (Karachi: Government of Pakistan/Joint Reserach Council-International Union for the Conservation of Nature Pakistan, 1992), 68.

48. Ibid., 70.

49. Ibid., 69.

50. Ibid., 70.

51. Ibid., 68.

52. Ibid., 21.

53. As reported in G. R. Sandhu, Sustainable Agriculture: A Pakistan National Conservation Strategy Sector Paper (Karachi: IUCN-The World Conservation Union, 1992), 35.

54. Government of Pakistan, The Pakistan National Conservation Strategy (Karachi: GOP/JRC-IUCN Pakistan, 1992), 21-22.

55. Ibid., 26.

56. See Arif Hasan and Amenah Azam Ali, Environmental Repercussions of Development in Pakistan (Karachi: OPP-RTI, March 1993), 35.

57. Global Assessment of Soil Degradation, "Europe, Africa and West Central Asia," sheet 2 of World Map on the Status of Human-Induced Soil Degradation (Wageningen, The Netherlands: United Nations Environment Programme, International Soil Reference Center, 1990).

58. "Salinity" is the accumulation of salts in a given amount of water or soil, primarily due to overirrigation and a lack of adequate drainage. See Peter Collin, Dictionary of Ecology and the Environment (London: P. Collin Publishers, 1988), 158; and Andy Crump, Dictionary of Environment and Development (London: Earthscan, 1991), 219-20. "Sodicity" refers to the impact of high concentrations of sodium on soil. While saline soils generally have normal properties, sodic soils undergo physicochemical reactions which cause the slaking of aggregates and the swelling and dispersion of clay materials, leading to reduced permeability and poor tilth. The loss of permeability may so restrict water infiltration into the root zone that plants become stressed from lack of water. Crusting can also impede seedling emergence and reduce crop stand. For an extended discussion, see Kenneth K. Tanji, ed., Agricultural Salinity Assessment and Management (New York: American Society of Civil Engineers, 1990), 18-28.

59. Government of Pakistan, The Pakistan National Conservation Strategy, 26.

60. For an in-depth discussion of these disputes and the eight years of negotiations that led to their successful resolution, see Niranjan D. Gulhati, The Indus Waters Treaty: An Exercise in International Mediation (New York: Allied Publishers, 1973).

61. Pakistan Administrative Staff College, Environmental Issues and Problems in Pakistan, National Management Paper (Lahore: Pakistan Administrative Staff College, July 1994), 46.

62. Ibid., 47.

63. Ibid.

64. Ibid.

65. Ibid.

66. Government of Pakistan, The Pakistan National Conservation Strategy, 39.

67. Ibid.

68. Pakistan Administrative Staff College, Environmental Issues and Problems, 48. See also Government of Pakistan, The Pakistan National Conservation Strategy, 80.

69. Pakistan Administrative Staff College, Environmental Issues and Problems, 48.

70. Zafar Samdani, "Bigger Power Crisis in the Offing," The Globe: Karachi, July 1994, 26.

71. Government of Pakistan, The Pakistan National Conservation Strategy, 33.

72. Ibid.

73. Ibid.

74. Ibid., p. xvi. According to agricultural specialists, the level of forested area should be between 20 and 25 percent of a nation's total land area. See Tom Rogers, "Population Growth and Movement in Pakistan: A Case Study," Asian Survey 30, no.5 (May 1990): 457.

75. "Deforestation Enigma - Afforestation Drives," The Muslim: Peshawar, 21 July 1995, p. 1.

76. As reported in ibid.

77. Arif Hasan and Amenah Azam Ali, "Environmental Problems in Pakistan: Their Origins, Development and the Threats They Pose to Sustainable Development," Environment and Urbanization 4, no.1 (April 1992): 13.

78. Sandhu, Sustainable Agriculture, 26.

79. Hasan and Ali, "Environmental Problems," 13.

80. Ibid.

81. Water and Development Authority, National Power Plan Pakistan (Islamabad: Government of Pakistan and the Canadian International Development Agency, April 1994), 2-2.

82. Hasan and Ali, Environmental Repercussions, 31.

83. Mudassar Imran and Philip Barnes, Energy Demand in the Developing Countries: Prospects for the Future, World Bank Staff Commodity Working Paper 23 (Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 1990), 41.

84. Ibid., 32.

85. Sungi Development Foundation, Ghazi-Barotha Hydro Power Project, 2.

86. Loadshedding occurs when managers of an electricity grid deliberately reduce the flow of electricity to some parts of the grid because total electricity demand across the grid exceeds total supply.

87. As reported in Sandhu, Sustainable Agriculture, 34-35.

88. Sungi Development Foundation, Forests, Wealth and Politics: A Focus on Hazara (Islamabad: Sungi Development Foundation, April 1995), 1.

89. Finance Division, Government of Pakistan, Economic Survey 1992-93 (Islamabad: Government of Pakistan, June 1993), 2.

90. Arif Hasan, "Karachi and the Global Nature of Urban Violence," The Urban Age 1, no. 4 (summer 1993): 4.

91. Syed Ayub Qutub, "Rapid Population Growth and Urban Problems in Pakistan," Ambio 21, no. 1 (February 1992): 47.

92. As reported in Jalal, Democracy and Authoritarianism, 143.

93. Hasan and Ali, "Environmental Problems," 11.

94. Prior attempts at land reform failed entirely. In 1952-53, for instance, Punjab's bigger landlords subverted an attempt by the progressive wing of the Muslim League to initiate redistributive reforms by refusing to bring their produce to market and by precipitating a "man-made" famine in the province. See Jalal, Democracy and Authoritarianism, 145.

95. Ibid., 147.

96. As reported in John Adams, "Population and Urbanization," in Foundations of Pakistan's Political Economy: Towards an Agenda for the 1990s, eds. William E. James and Subroto Roy (New Delhi: Sage Publications, 1992), 245.

97. Pakistan Administrative Staff College, Environmental Issues and Problems, 43.

98. Hussain, Strategic Issues, 186-87.

99. Pakistan Administrative Staff College, Environmental Issues and Problems, 43.

100. Sungi Development Foundation, Forests, Wealth and Politics, 1-3.

101. Ibid., 4.

102. Ibid., 44.

103. Pakistan Administrative Staff College, Environmental Issues and Problems, 52. See also, Sungi Development Foundation, Forests, Wealth and Politics.

104. United Nations Department of International, Economic and Social Affairs, Population Growth and Policies in Mega-Cities: Karachi, Population Policy Paper 13 (New York: United Nations, 1988), 18.

105. See, for instance, Lamb, Waiting for Allah, 151-52. Nor are businesses and merchants excluded from such exploitation. According to Arif Hasan, a recent study of the Saddar area of Karachi reveals that the police and local administration collect over PRs 110 million a month (US$3.4 million) as bhatta (tribute) from hawkers and encroachers (including beggars). See Arif Hasan, "What Is Karachi Really Fighting For?," The Herald: Karachi, September 1995, 62.

106. See Nafisa Shah, "Karachi Breakdown," Newsline, July 1994, 35, 37.

107. As reported in Ahmed Rashid, "Mean Streets: Chaos and Violence Rule in Karachi," Far Eastern Economic Review, 27 October 1994, p. 19.

108. Ibid., 152.

109. See Sandhu, Sustainable Agriculture, 36.

110. Ibid., 36-37.

111. Kenneth Fernandes, "Katchi Adabis: Living on the Edge" Environment and Urbanization 6, no.1 (April 1994): 51; Environment and Urban Affairs Division, Government of Pakistan, Pakistan National Report to the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development: August, 1991 (Karachi: Government of Pakistan-Joint Research Council, 1991) 11.

112. According to field surveys, 33 percent of poorer farmers (those with less than three hectares of land) reported a decline in the quantity of their diet, and a full 67 percent indicated a drop in its quality. See Hussain, Strategic Issues, 286.

113. Ibid.

114. Sandhu, Sustainable Agriculture, 1.

115. Ibid.

116. Ibid.

117. For example, while seven good harvests allowed the government to boast self-sufficiency and an export capacity in wheat from 1977 through 1982, poor harvests the following year threw agriculture into crisis, as the annual average growth rate fell from 3.9 percent to minus 6.14 percent for 1983-84. See Hussain, Strategic Issues, 6.

118. As reported in Tom Rogers, "Population Growth and Movement in Pakistan: A Case Study," Asian Survey 30, no. 5 (May 1990): 457.

119. Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Government of Pakistan, Report of the National Commission on Agriculture (Islamabad: Government of Pakistan, March 1988), pp. xxxv-xxxvi.

120. Government of Pakistan, The Pakistan National Conservation Strategy, 113.

121. Ibid., 240.

122. Ibid.

123. Sandhu, Sustainable Agriculture, 36.

124. Interview with Sajid Akhtar, Senior Research Economist, Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan, 19 September 1995.

125. World Bank, Agricultural Operations Division, South Asia Region, Pakistan: A Strategy for Sustainable Agricultural Growth, Report 13092-PAK (Washington D.C.: World Bank, November 1994), 32.

126. See, for instance, National Institute of Population Studies, Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey: 1990-1991 (Islamabad: National Institute of Population Studies, July 1992), 4, 12.

127. As reported in Hasan and Ali, "Environmental Problems," 16.

128. See M. Nawaz Tariq and Waris Ali, Managing Municipal Wastes: A Pakistan National Conservation Strategy Sector Paper (Karachi: IUCN-The World Conservation Union, Pakistan, 1993), 7.

129. Hastings Donnan and Prina Werbner, "Introduction," in Economy and Culture in Pakistan: Migrants and Cities in Muslim Society, eds. Hastings Donnan and Prina Werbner (London: Macmillan, 1991), 11.

130. See Sandhu, Sustainable Agriculture, 36.

131. Qutub, "Rapid Population Growth," 47.

132. Ibid.

133. Sandhu, Sustainable Agriculture, 37.

134. Ibid.

135. United Nations Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, Population Growth and Policies in Mega-Cities, 24.

136. Ibid., 25.

137. Ibid.

138. Kamran Zakaria, "KESC - It's Time to Ponder," The Globe: Karachi, July 1994, 37.

139. Ibid., 28.

140. Ibid.

141. Hasan and Ali, "Environmental Problems," 16.

142. Tariq and Ali, Managing Municipal Wastes, 1.

143. Hasan and Ali, "Environmental Problems," 15.

144. Ibid.

145. Government of Pakistan, The Pakistan National Conservation Strategy, 83.

146. Tariq and Ali, Managing Municipal Wastes, 5.

147. Ibid.

148. Thomas Homer-Dixon, "Environmental Scarcities," 24-25.

149. Ibid., 25.

150. Government of Pakistan, The Pakistan National Conservation Strategy, 108.

151. Ibid., 110.

152. Ibid.

153. Ibid.

154. Ibid.

155. World Bank, Trends in Developing Economies, 384.

156. Sandhu, Sustainable Agriculture, 37.

157. See Environment and Urban Affairs Division, Government of Pakistan, Pakistan National Report, 31.

158. As reported in Sungi Development Foundation, Ghazi-Barotha Hydro Power Project, 2.

159. Zafar Samdani, "Bigger Power Crisis in the Offing," Globe, July 24, 1994, p. 27; K. Qamar and A. Abidi, "Electric Blues," Newsline, July 1994, 50.

160. Government of Pakistan, The Pakistan National Conservation Strategy, 110.

161. United Nations Department of International, Economic and Social Affairs, Population Growth and Policies in Mega-Cities, 19.

162. Ibid.

163. Ibid., 34.

164. Kathy Evans, "Frankenstein's Monsters Terrorize Karachi" Manchester Guardian 2 April 1995, 7. Weekly, 164.

165. See Hasan, "What Is Karachi Really Fighting For?" 59.

166. See for instance, Akmal Hussain, "The Karachi Riots of December 1986: Crisis of State and Civil Society in Pakistan," in Mirrors of Violence: Communities, Riots and Survivors in South Asia, ed. Veena Das (New York: Oxford University Press, 1990), 205.

167. Azhar Abbas, "Return of the Dacoit?" The Herald: Karachi, May 1995, pp. 26-30, 32-33.

168. Ibid., 32. See also "Sindh: Dacoits Active Again," The News: Karachi, 29 May 1995, p. 7.

169. Arif Hasan, "Karachi and the Global Nature of Urban Violence," The Urban Age 1, no. 4 (summer 1993): 6.

170. Adams, "Population and Urbanization," 254.

171. "Asia's Answer to Beirut," The Economist, 1 July 1995, p. 30.

172. Farhan Bokhari, "Ripple Effect," The Herald, July 1995, p. 48.

173. Ibid. See also Farhan Bokhari, "Pakistan - Effects of Karachi," The Nation: Islamabad, 31 July 1995, p. 25.

174. With the notable exception of the dacoits, rural violence has tended to be confined to familial conflicts and isolated disputes over land. See, Pervaiz Naeem Tariq and Naeem Durrani, Socio-Psychological Aspects of Crime in Pakistan, Psychological Research Monograph 1 (Islamabad: National Institute of Psychology, 1983), 103-106.

175. Lamb, Waiting for Allah, 121.

176. Migrants entering cities will not necessarily experience the highest levels of relative deprivation or be those most likely to engage in violent activity. Evidence suggests that newly arriving migrants generally regard urban life as an improvement over their previous rural existence. See, for instance, Yoshifumi Usami, "Rural-Urban Migration and Employment in Karachi and Islamabad," in Migration in Pakistan: Theories and Facts, eds. Fritz Selier and Methab Karim (Lahore: Vanguard Books, 1986), 81-82. Nevertheless, heavy migration increases the number of diverse, competing groups within the urban setting and reduces resources available to the urban population as a whole. These processes raise the probability that certain groups - whether migrants or others - will eventually come to perceive themselves as seriously deprived in relation to neighboring groups.

177. For instance, the Karachi Metropolitan Corporation, the body charged with providing essential facilities to the city's residents, has long served as a vehicle for patronage, providing jobs for political activists. Thousands of the corporation's employees have no specific work to do. Almost half of the corporation's budget is spent on salaries, while one-quarter is allocated to development: and reports indicate that over 40 percent of this development budget is lost in pilferage. See Zahid Hussain, "A City Betrayed," Newsline, July 1994, p. 52.

178. Abbas Rashid and Farida Saheed, Pakistan: Ethno-Politics and Contending Elites, United Nations Research Institute for Social Development Discussion Paper 45 (New York: United Nations, June 1993), 21-22.

179. Nafia Shah, "Karachi Breakdown," Newsline, July 1994, p. 34.

180. Pakistan Administrative Staff College, Environmental Issues and Problems, 48.

181. Quadssi Akhlaque, "It's Tanker Warfare, Capital Flight," The Nation: Islamabad, pp. 1, 9. Reports from rural villages in Digri indicate a rise in protest due to closures of water courses and canals. In Mirpurkhas Division, farmers demonstrated against the Irrigation Department for its seeming apathy. See "Farmers Protest Against Water Crisis," The News: Karachi, 30 September 1995, p. 11.

182. Hameed Hasan, "Imperatives of Urban Planning: A Case Study of Mingora" (unpublished paper, International Union for the Conservation of Nature-Sarhad Provincial Conservation Strategy Unit, Peshawar, Pakistan, October 1995), p. 2.

183. Ibid., 2-3.

184. Interview with Stephen Fuller, Chief Technical Adviser, IUCN-SPCS Unit, Planning Environment and Development Department, Civil Secretariat, Peshawar, Pakistan, 5 October 1995.

185. For more detailed discussion, see Mohammad Zubair Khan, The Devastating Impact of Ghazi-Barotha Project on Downstream Water Resources, Working Paper 21 (Islamabad: Sustainable Development Policy Institute, 1995), and Sungi Development Foundation, Ghazi-Barotha Hydro Power Project.

186. Khan, Devastating Impact of Ghazi-Barotha Project, 1.

187. Ibid.

188. Ibid., 4-5.

189. Interview with Tariq Banuri, Executive Director, Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Islamabad, Pakistan, 9 October 1995.

190. Hasan and Ali, "Environmental Problems," 96-97.

191. Ibid., 98.

192. Ibid., 98-99.

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